ARD Waterproofing, a licensed basement waterproofing contractor working across West Essex, Passaic and Morris counties since 2015, is pointing New Jersey homeowners to the limitations NOAA attaches to its own seasonal hurricane forecast.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an updated 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on Aug. 6, assigning a 75% chance that the season finishes below normal. Most Atlantic activity is expected during the August-through-October peak, and the season runs through Nov. 30.
The outlook carries an explicit limitation, stated in the document itself. The Climate Prediction Center describes it as a general guide to expected overall activity, says it is "not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast" and states that it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. The same document notes that hurricane-related disasters can occur in any season, including years with low overall activity, that it takes only one storm to cause a disaster and that residents should prepare regardless of any seasonal outlook.
Rainfall records for New Jersey are documented separately from any seasonal forecast. State of the Climate: New Jersey 2024, published by Rutgers University through the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center in August 2025, reports that total annual rainfall in the state has increased by about 7% since the early 1900s, with the most intense events generating more rainfall than comparable historical episodes. Under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the report projects a further increase in total annual rainfall of about 3% to 13% by the end of the century, and an increase of about 5% to 15% in extreme 24-hour rainfall.
That report also notes that New Jersey has been subject to numerous extreme rainfall events, both inland and coastal, associated with tropical cyclones throughout its recorded climatological history, and that warmer global temperatures are expected to make tropical systems more intense, slower to decay and capable of heavier rainfall. The authors cite Hurricane Helene, which dropped as much as 30 inches of rain on parts of western North Carolina over four days in September 2024, as an indication of conditions that can also occur in New Jersey.
"A seasonal storm count doesn't tell a homeowner anything about their own foundation," said David Roth, owner of ARD Waterproofing. "What our crews will be looking at this fall is how much water reaches the wall during a single heavy rain, and where it goes from there."
Roth said the conditions crews document during an inspection are visible without tools: dampness or a dark line where the basement wall meets the floor, white mineral staining known as efflorescence on block or concrete, a musty odor that returns after rain, peeling paint, hairline foundation cracks and a sump pump that cycles during moderate rainfall.
What those conditions indicate is a separate question, and Roth was careful about how far his own observations reach. On the jobs his crews have run across the three counties, he said, water pooling near the foundation after a downpour or downspouts discharging beside a wall have more often turned out to be exterior drainage problems than problems originating inside the basement. He described that as a pattern in his own inspection history rather than an established conclusion about New Jersey homes generally, and said soil conditions, grading and drainage history differ from one address to the next. No single sign is diagnostic on its own, and each of the conditions listed can have more than one cause.
Basement waterproofing methods, documented warning signs and interior and exterior drainage options for New Jersey homes are described at https://ardwaterproofing.com/basement-waterproofing-services/.
Information is believed accurate at the time of publication. Contact ARD Waterproofing directly for current details.
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, issued Aug. 6, 2026: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
Davies, K., Shope, J., Broccoli, A., Gerbush, M., Kaplan, M., Robinson, D., Nikolopoulos, E., Araujo, D., Kopp, R., Herb, J. and Spector, A. 2025. State of the Climate: New Jersey 2024. Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ: njclimateresourcecenter.rutgers.edu/resources/state-of-the-climate-new-jersey/
About ARD Waterproofing
Founded in 2015, ARD Waterproofing is an employee-owned waterproofing and drainage contractor based in West Caldwell, New Jersey, serving homeowners across West Essex, Passaic and Morris counties. Services include interior and exterior French drains, sump pumps, channel drains, crawl space encapsulation, window wells and foundation crack repair. The company holds New Jersey Home Improvement Contractor License 13VH12460700. ARD Waterproofing, 98 Smull Ave, West Caldwell, NJ 07006. (917) 691-8411. https://ardwaterproofing.com
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For more information about ARD Waterproofing, contact the company here:
ARD Waterproofing
David Roth
19176918411
info@ardwaterproofing.com
98 Smull Ave, West Caldwell, NJ 07006, United States